NMNH Surface Temp - Emily Judd

Emily Judd, the lead author of the new paper and a former postdoctoral researcher at the National Museum of Natural History and the University of Arizona, at the Walcott Quarry in British Columbia, Canada, in 2019.

The team created the temperature curve utilizing an approach called data assimilation. This allowed the researchers to combine data from the geologic record and climate models to create a more cohesive understanding of ancient climates.

“This method was originally developed for weather forecasting,” Judd said. “Instead of using it to forecast future weather, here we’re using it to hindcast ancient climates.”

A new study co-led by the Smithsonian and the University of Arizona offers the most detailed glimpse yet of how Earth’s surface temperature has changed over the past 485 million years. In a paper published today, Sept. 19, in the journal Science, a team of researchers produce a curve of global mean surface temperature across deep time—the Earth’s ancient past stretching over many millions of years.